In 10 to 20 years there could be no smokers left in many markets, according to analysts at Jefferies Financial Group. Governments and tobacco companies are on the same side in this shift, as more countries adopt smoke-free targets and companies push smokers over to reduced-risk products (RRP) such as vaping and oral nicotine.
It’s hard to think that tobacco companies would be supportive of such a future.
But according to one analyst, if the end of smoking does come with the introduction of RRP, as long as big tobacco is taking its fair share, growth should be just as good, if not better than the past. So it’s not surprising that many, if not most, tobacco companies would be OK with a decline in traditional smoking.
The view that cigarettes could become obsolete is also held by Citigroup Inc., which expects smoking to disappear by 2050 from the U.S., parts of Europe, Australia and large chunks of Latin America if the declining trend seen in recent decades continues.
This trend has been driven by pressure from societal attitudes, regulation, and taxation.
As much as I am against smoking, it is hard for me to imagine a future without smoking. It seems so ingrained and so addictive. But it would be wonderful. And while I don’t know much about the alternative products, my sense is that they are not as harmful, but they are far from perfect. But if they can help accelerate the end of smoking, then they seem to be a step in the right direction.
I am excited by the prospect of a smokeless future, and it got me thinking.
If it’s possible for smoking to disappear within the next generation, perhaps guns can as well.
A future with no more smoking guns sounds pretty good to me…
source: Smoking may disappear within a generation, analysts predict, by Lisa Pham