If Smoking Can Disappear Within the Next Generation, Maybe Guns Can Too…

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In 10 to 20 years there could be no smokers left in many markets, according to analysts at Jefferies Financial Group. Governments and tobacco companies are on the same side in this shift, as more countries adopt smoke-free targets and companies push smokers over to reduced-risk products (RRP) such as vaping and oral nicotine.

It’s hard to think that tobacco companies would be supportive of such a future.

But according to one analyst, if the end of smoking does come with the introduction of RRP, as long as big tobacco is taking its fair share, growth should be just as good, if not better than the past. So it’s not surprising that many, if not most, tobacco companies would be OK with a decline in traditional smoking.

The view that cigarettes could become obsolete is also held by Citigroup Inc., which expects smoking to disappear by 2050 from the U.S., parts of Europe, Australia and large chunks of Latin America if the declining trend seen in recent decades continues.

This trend has been driven by pressure from societal attitudes, regulation, and taxation.

As much as I am against smoking, it is hard for me to imagine a future without smoking. It seems so ingrained and so addictive. But it would be wonderful. And while I don’t know much about the alternative products, my sense is that they are not as harmful, but they are far from perfect. But if they can help accelerate the end of smoking, then they seem to be a step in the right direction.

I am excited by the prospect of a smokeless future, and it got me thinking.

If it’s possible for smoking to disappear within the next generation, perhaps guns can as well.

A future with no more smoking guns sounds pretty good to me…

source: Smoking may disappear within a generation, analysts predict, by Lisa Pham

Published by Jim Borden

A 60-something guy trying to figure out the world, and his place in it. Happily married for 40-plus years, three wonderful sons. Accounting teacher, fitness enthusiast, blogger, reader.

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45 thoughts on “If Smoking Can Disappear Within the Next Generation, Maybe Guns Can Too…”

  1. I like your “smoking guns” play on words.

    I’m very libertarian when it comes to individual rights. For instance, I believe in legalizing all narcotics. However, I’m all for banning cigarettes. The problem with smoking is that it’s not just the smoker who smokes, it’s also everyone around the smoker inhaling their second-hand smoke. So I say, tax the hell out of it, and do whatever else it takes to eliminate it from our society.

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    1. smoking seems like a tough addiction to stop, but I think if they just keep increasing the taxes, at some point people will decide it just isn’t worth it…

      And let’s hope that someday wars will also end…

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  3. It’s nice to dream, but I think too many people will never give up either. Cigarettes are too addictive and when fear is promoted, people respond by buying more guns.

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    1. but I think we can do thinks to make it harder. raise taxes on cigarettes, even more. And as Chris Rock suggested, no need to ban guns. Just make bullets $5,000 a piece…

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  4. I would agree that smoking will eventually go the way of the dinosaurs. Through taxation, higher costs of health insurance, and a general unacceptance from society, it is quickly moving that direction. We have always, as a society, changed what is acceptable and what is not as our understanding and view of the world around us changes. It would be amazing to see guns follow the same path, but I am not sure what the path would be. Certainly we would have to figure out how to keep guns out of the hands of criminals so that law-abiding citizens feel more comfortable being unarmed. But I do foresee a future that has neither, I just may not live long enough to witness it.

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    1. I agree that cigarettes will likely be nearly gone long before guns, but I can always hope. I still remember how we first met online, when I read your very thoughtful pieces on guns…

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      1. Although still a strong proponent of the right to own a gun, I would happily give them up if I could be assured the violence would stop. My fear being that it would not stop the violence and I would be left with little option but to be a victim. It is our respectful disagreement that I find the most refreshing in our current state of affairs online.

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  5. I feel that smoking is heading the way of the dinosaur, though it is a tough thing to give up for those in the grip of it. the alternatives are not healthy either, for a variety of reasons, but at least do not impact others around the one partaking. as for guns, they impact everyone, in a variety of ways, and I’d love to see them go. I know people have their reasons and rights, just my own wish to have them gone.

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    1. I agree that the alternatives do not seem much better, at least for the individual using them.

      And I realize that guns are a polarizing issue, and I know many gun-owners who are aware of the issues, and have put much thought into their decision to own one. It’s just something I am on the other side of compared to them.

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  6. My daughter doesn’t know what cigarettes are and she’s nearly 8. We’ve come a long way. Fingers crossed the smoking guns will go the same way.

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  7. I hate cigarettes almost as much as I hate guns. I don’t think it’s fair to suggest that smoking may disappear ‘in just a generation’. The US government has been in an active campaign against cigarettes since the 1960s. So if we are truly smoke-free by 2050, I would say it took 90 years to achieve that. I’d love to see it happen, and the length of time it took (is taking) doesn’t diminish the achievement. Now let’s get started on guns and maybe in 100 years, we’ll live in a mostly gun-free environment.

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    1. great point, Jeff, about how long there has been a campaign against smoking. Maybe it just took a viable alternative for the process to accelerate.

      And as for a viable alternative to guns, how about just using words to settle disputes… (or taxes)…

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      1. Sort of like in the 80s when break dancing was seen as an alternative to gang fights? Have you seen the movie Thank You for Smoking? Absolutely one of my faves (way better than the book).

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  10. We can only hope but I have noticed that movies and TV shows are including characters who smoke quite often these days. It had slowed down for many years. Now smoking is once again being used for character development. And of course guns are everywhere on TV. At least American TV, which has a lot of influence.

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    1. that’s an interesting observation about the rise of smoking in movies and tv shows. hopefully that does not suggest there will be an increase in smoking as a result. and yes, Americans love their guns…

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  11. Smoking only brings misery in the long run. It is amazing it has lasted this long. Thank god the framers didn’t include mention tobacco in the constitution. It will take a very big attitude change for guns to go away.

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  13. Smoking is a habit. Although tough, if one wants to quit, it can be done. possession of a firearm is a RIGHT granted to US Citizens by our founding fathers. It was put there to insure that citizens had a means to defend themselves and their families against a tyrannical government be it a monarchy, democracy, or a republic. I quit smoking, however it will be a cold day in hell if I give up my right to defend myself and my family 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

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